Curse

ghoster · Dec 28, 2008, 06:19 PM // 18:19

just done my 200 run - no golden letters... i'll do 25 more and resign ;|

IlikeGW · Dec 28, 2008, 06:20 PM // 18:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSpayde

I quit polar bear farming after a guild mate of mine got it in one (out of one run total), sold the damn mini, and started gloating to me at 8am about how much ecto he made and how he beat Guild Wars. He doesn't even like GW and he gets the effing polar bear.

Screw you ANET.

That's because the odds are so bad it's just playing lotto. Of course people who don't give a s.h.i.t. will get it in 1 run. They've got as much chance as someone doing 200. I warned people to stay away from this trap but Anet has fooled you again.

EroChrono · Dec 28, 2008, 07:07 PM // 19:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zomeone

Hi guys and chicks,

Thought i'd participate in this conversation. I did over 100 runs to get a miniature polar bear, frustrating... And i finally realized that it's not worth it, i don't care even if it's the rarest mini in the game, it's still virtual item. So, i made myself a REAL polar bear minipet, i posted the photo here. I'm actually proud of myself, took 3 hours to make and it's more real than the virtual minipet... lol

/thread

Regardless of how many polar bears you get, how much ecto you generate, it will never be as awesome as that home-made polar bear!
That picture really put a smile on my face

tmakinen · Dec 28, 2008, 07:44 PM // 19:44

Some people don't have a professional level understanding of statistics but that's completely ok. It's sufficient here to point out that there are different methods of estimating the probability of event X but the methods are not equal when in comes to their confidence levels. Specifically, the suggested 'tell how many times you tried until you got one' method has abysmal confidence level unless a significant portion of the runs are longer than 1/P (i.e., if the probability is 1 in 1000 then at least a quarter of runs should be longer than that to determine the shape of the cumulative probability function). Estimates based on duplicates have even worse requirements.

Let me tell what works. You must answer these two questions: how many times has the chest been opened during the event, and, how many MPBs have dropped? You can give a decent estimate to the first question by observing people who talk to the Rift Warden. There's one opened chest for every two talks (since you have to zone between claiming the reward and retaking the quest). Do this over all active districts at different times of the day to get an average activity level. According my observations, the chest is opened about once every second, which equals about 1 million openings since the event started. If that has produced 100 MPBs the best estimate would then be 1 in 10,000 or if there are 2000 MPBs in the circulation the odds would be 1 in 500. I feel pretty confident with the number of chests opened, so it's your turn to guess how many bears are out there. This is the most robust available method of estimating the MPB drop probability.

Yamagawa · Dec 28, 2008, 08:38 PM // 20:38

Good point, T-Mack.

Pulling out my bat, time for some ballpark work, and assign some bounds to this problem:

Total minis generated fit into 3 categories:
Sold undedicated.
Dedicated & sold.
Kept.

So, figure bounds on these three figures: Given what most people posting here said about the minis they got, I might put the bounds as:
sold undedicated: 5-30%
Sold dedicated: 10-30%
Kept: 40-85%

So, figure for each ten minis found, 1.5 to 6 get sold. Conversely, each mini sold likely represents ~ 1.5 - 7 minis dropped.

That leaves the million dollar (thousand ecto?) question: How many bears are in the market?
Combine with the expected drops / sale, and compare that against the ~ 1 million opens, and we start to get something like real bounds on the drop rate.
//Yamagawa

texeasons · Dec 28, 2008, 08:51 PM // 20:51

Not to start an argument or point fingers, but once a second for the chest opening, seems a bit high to me. Whenever I go and talk to the warden there might be 7 people there. And this is in the busy districts and on the weekend. During the non-peak times there might 2-3 people there and that is in districts 1-3. And so far there have been no more than 13 districts total in L.A. So assuming that Kamadan (and yes I have observed about the same there) matches L.A. I still don't see the chest opening once per second. Maybe once every 30 seconds. For instance just as I was typing this there were 4 people at the warden in dis. 2 and 2 at the warden in dis. 1.

陰影 · Dec 28, 2008, 09:23 PM // 21:23

take in the people who are already inside, people running 2 accounts , people in diff dists , , it all adds up to a lot

tmakinen · Dec 28, 2008, 09:34 PM // 21:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by texeasons

once a second for the chest opening, seems a bit high to me. Whenever I go and talk to the warden there might be 7 people there. And this is in the busy districts and on the weekend. During the non-peak times there might 2-3 people there and that is in districts 1-3. And so far there have been no more than 13 districts total in L.A. So assuming that Kamadan (and yes I have observed about the same there) matches L.A. I still don't see the chest opening once per second. Maybe once every 30 seconds.

Meditate on this: the number of players arriving to the Rift Warden over a given time is double the number of chests opened during that time. If it takes about 10 seconds to either claim the reward or retake the quest, then one player by the Warden in one district represents 3 chests opened per minute (60 / (10+10)). Then, 2 players by the warden in 10 different active districts (LA and Kamadan, American and different Euros) is 2 * 10 * 3 = 60 chests opened per minute, ergo one chest per second. This way of estimating the opening rate is so beautiful because the average time that people use for a run doesn't matter. You'll always go past the Rift Warden exactly two times per opened chest. If anything, the 1 chest per second is a low estimate, even by the numbers given by you. One chest per 30 seconds would mean that you'd have to wait for minutes on any given district until you see somebody talking to a Rift Warden. Numbers, they're a funny thing n'est ce pas?

texeasons · Dec 28, 2008, 11:10 PM // 23:10

How do you figure one person represents 3 chests per minute? I'm not trying to argue here, I just don't see how that is. It takes 5 minutes with a cupcake and assisting in battle. Not everybody uses a cupcake and not everybody assists in battle. So without a cupcake, and without assisting in battle it takes anywhere from 8-17 min. Yes I have had a 17 min. wait from running to the end, and waiting with no assisting in the battle. This averages 12.5 min. per run without cupcakes or battling yourself. Even with multiple accounts those people aren't averaging 1 per minute themselves (unless there is a ridiculous amount of accounts being run simultaneously). So again I don't see one per second. And just to reassure, I am just trying to figure out how you arrived at one per second. I am an accountant myself and understand numbers and stats, but I don't see how you arrived at one person at the warden represents 3 per minute on the chest. I understand your 60/ (10+10), but just because it takes (and you stated "if it takes") 10 seconds to claim reward and retake quest, does not mean that you divide 60 seconds by the 20 it takes for the quest turn-around to arrive at chests opened per minute. Some people are only doing the quest once, some their first time, others aren't grinding repeatedly quest, turn-around, quest, turn-around. There are breaks involved, starting the quest/turnaround process, and ending the process. There are those that take more time in between quest turn arounds.

CE Devilman · Dec 28, 2008, 11:25 PM // 23:25

cupcake and GWx ...3.5min

1.start the first runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
2.start the second runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
3.first runner clean up CC and chest grap Reward and rezone and start run one more time...wave...door
4. second runner clean up..and so on

hell U dont need to be lvl 20...

so its more like 50-100 runs a day /acc to get a bear

texeasons · Dec 29, 2008, 01:37 AM // 01:37

Another thought on one chest per second. If the run took an average of 3.5 min. there would have to be 210 people or accounts averaging that time all the time (60 * 3.5= 210). And my point earlier was that I don't see how 210 people or characters or accounts, however you wish to address it, are running this thing at all times. And if there are, I don't think all 210 are averaging 3.5 min/run. And the 3.5min/ run is also using gwx2, which actually makes it 7 min./run 3.5min/chest per person running 2 accounts. Which then doubles the 210 to 420 characters successfully running this quest at all times and averaging 7 min/run on each character.

Yamagawa · Dec 29, 2008, 03:01 AM // 03:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

hmm i expected to see confirmed MPB's here.....must be in the wrong thread....eek.

Right place, just too few of them dropping for that purpose of the thread to be very evident. I think we've had about 10 people post reporting having got minis.

The second purpose of the thread is to try and derive the approximate drop rate of the mini, and we've had our share of people who've never taken a statistics course in their life adding in their two bits by stating quite repeatedly that determining the drop rate is impossible.

I'd presently ballpark the drop rate as somewhere between 1:2,500 and 1:20,000.
//Yamagawa

DarklingKiller · Dec 29, 2008, 03:31 AM // 03:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiteWasabi

If I had a polar bear I would keep it quiet and sell it in 3-6 months for triple the going rate.

I did about 400 runs and 0 polar bears. The one I did get I had to buy for a MOUNTAIN of ectos

Are you still selling Andrew's Mask or w/e?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RTSFirebat

This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.

^Smart guy

Rexion · Dec 29, 2008, 04:07 AM // 04:07

My theory is a Mini Polar Bear drops in the same manner as you get the Sorcerer's/Philosopher's Stone in Harry Potter

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

Dumbledore also explains that the Philosopher's Stone has been destroyed to prevent future attempts by Voldemort to steal it. He then tells Harry that only those who wanted to find the Stone, but not use it would be able to retrieve it from the mirror, which is why Harry was able to retrieve it.

When I think of "use it", I think of not sell it for 2000e. Probably why I won't get one. lol

texeasons · Dec 29, 2008, 04:49 AM // 04:49

Right there with you Jasmine. I wouldn't sell it if I had a gauranteed payment of 4500 armbraces. I just want one to have. No selling, I just want the cute little fellar.

I pwnd U · Dec 29, 2008, 04:59 AM // 04:59

Well I'm pretty sure ANet just hates me. 275ish runs and no bear. But my ele had her second birthday present. She got a Mini Prince Rurik first time around, my friend got his monks birthday present and got a purple miniature, don't remember exactly what it was. So I opened mine, got a Harpy Ranger... I already have one of those. <.< *slap* /sigh Some people have all the luck.

daze · Dec 29, 2008, 05:06 AM // 05:06

well, i dont know how many runs i did, but i did save all my shards and i now have 18 stacks of candy shards. I farmed on 2 accounts with no consumables and i only joined at the end to clear the grench boss. each run took 5-10 minutes per account.
1: Account A, run to end stand at door
2: Account B, run to end stand at door
3: Account A, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
4: Account A, Start from step 1
5: Account B, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
6: Account B Start from step 2

oh yeah and i did finally find the bear yesterday

, im not sure how many runs it took but if you do some math and take 10 shards as the average gain from one run you can determine how many runs it took. Just remember to cut the final number in half since i was using 2 accounts.
I went ahead and dedicated the bear then i sold it for a meager 5 stacks of ectos. Now the ectos are sitting safely on my separate stand alone GW account.

I never accepted the reward at the end, because when i accepted the reward at the end on my primary character, i was never allowed to repeat the quest.

I pwnd U · Dec 29, 2008, 05:22 AM // 05:22

I actually figured it out to where its more around 20 shards per run if you accept the reward at the end. oO

Lystra · Dec 29, 2008, 05:54 AM // 05:54

Updated Successful Run Count: 1404
MPB's 1(run#337)

Also, i finally decided to clock a 24 run set(8 accounts per set). The average time came out to 2.125 min/chest (51 Minutes/24 Chests) This includes startup the time it takes to get the quests and jump into SoS on the initial 4 accounts as well as getting all shards and W-Chests on all instances including the last 4.

I'm gonna keep going on the runs for the same of generating numbers. I will leave it up to the experts(wow, so many here

) to figure out the applications.

Also, soon enough I will start tallying some data together and updating the original post with it so we don't need to scan through the thread looking for info.

Rexion · Dec 29, 2008, 06:13 AM // 06:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by daze

I never accepted the reward at the end, because when i accepted the reward at the end on my primary character, i was never allowed to repeat the quest.

All you had to do was rezone into another district; then you'd have an extra 5 CCS for all those runs.